Brady Replacing Bledsoe

Peter King, in comparing the Patriot situation now, with Matt Cassell replacing Tom Brady, with their situation in 2001, with Tom Brady replacing Matt Cassell, makes a rather strange argument:

Is this the same situation as when the unknown Tom Brady stepped in seven years ago? The temptation is to say yes. The reality is it isn't. Brady had 25 starts at Michigan; Cassel had zero at USC. In 2001, New England actually didn't mind playing Brady, even though it came about in a horrible way, with Bledsoe sustaining internal injuries on the hit by Mo Lewis against the Jets.

The Patriots had grown tired of Bledsoe in 2001, thinking he was too much of a signal-calling maverick rather than going with the flow of what the team had game-planned for all week. Fast-forward to today. Brady is the perfect extension of Belichick on the field, and he's eminently coachable, and he's the perfect leader. My feeling is the Patriots knew they were eventually going to move Bledsoe by early in 2001, and so playing Brady early that year was not so painful. They want Brady to play for the next 10 years, so it's totally different now that Cassel HAS to play.

The Patriots were tired of Bledsoe in 2001? The coaching staff might have been. But King seemingly forgets that a few months before the 2001 season began, they gave Bledsoe a record $100 million contract which would have made him a Patriot for life. Just as they want Brady to play for 10 years now, they wanted Bledsoe to be their star for 10 years in 2001. Brady just made them change their minds.

The situations are not the same for the simple reason that there's only one Tom Brady. Granted, no one knew what Brady would become when he took over in 2001 and was about as unknown as Cassell is now. But no one can expect Cassell to do what Brady did, and that's what makes this situation different. If Brady had come in in 2001 and been nothing more than a somewhat capable backup, the situations might be similar. But he didn't.

Let It Go, Brett

Four months after his tearful retirement, Brett Favre is, apparently, looking to return to the NFL. This is really unfortunate because it puts the Packers in a very tough spot. The team has moved on from Favre and has Aaron Rodgers firmly installed as the starting quarterback. And the team drafted not one but two quarterbacks in April to fill out the depth chart. So there's really no room for Favre now. If they bump Rodgers back to backup and bring Favre back, then they can pretty much write off Rodgers in the long term, leaving all the planning and preparation the Packers have done for a life after Favre up in smoke. That's obviously very bad for the long-term health of the franchise.

If they can't bring him back, what can they do? Would any of the Packer brass really have the cajones to either trade or cut Brett? Ted Thompson would quite possibly never live it down if he did either, but he really has no choice and has to assert his leadership over the franchise. Favre may be a living legend and arguably the greatest player to ever don the uniform, but it is not his team and he cannot hold it hostage.

The Packers are not the first team to have to deal with this. Jerry Jones tried desperately to get Emmit Smith to retire, but when he insisted on continuing to play did what he had to do for the Cowboys and shipped him off to Arizona (where Smith later played against the Cowboys). Miami did the same thing with Dan Marino, telling him he was not in their plans and if he continued to play it would not be for the Dolphins. That lead to Marino's decision to retire. The 49ers had to ship off Joe Montana, arguably the greatest quarterback ever, to make room for Steve Young. Now those situations are all a bit different than what Thompson faces in Green Bay. Smith was a shadow of himself by that point in his illustrious career, as was Marino, and Young had already firmly established himself as the starting quarterback for the 49ers. Favre, on the other hand, is coming off a stellar season, and Rodgers has yet to start a game. (And the chances he'll be a Hall of Famer like Young are fairly slim, as they are for any player.) So while many commentators will draw comparisons with those earlier situations, they aren't all that appropriate.

The Packers would have to get rid of Favre. As already pointed out, the long term health of the franchise requires that Rodgers be given an adequate chance to prove himself as a starter before his current contract expires after the 2009 season. That leaves only two seasons. That has to factor in as one of the top considerations for both Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson.

Beyond that, one has to look beyond last season. Yes, 2007 was a great year for Favre. But that doesn't erase 2005 and 2006 when he was dismal, so much so that had he been just about anyone else he would likely have been benched. Need anyone be reminded of the 29 interceptions in 2005? The QB ratings around 70? The fact of the matter is, 2007 was quite possibly an anomaly, a last gasp of greatness from a player in his twilight years.

Even in 2007, we saw glimpses of the less than stellar Favre. Brett's problem is that when things aren't going smoothly and he decides he has to personally make something happen, he gets reckless and makes stupid decisions that often cost his team games. Look at the Dallas game last year. The big Packer story coming out of that game was how well Rodgers played once Favre went out and how almost brought them back. What's forgotten is that they were in the hole they were in because the running game wasn't doing much and Favre started forcing things and making the kinds of plays he made in 2005 en route to those infamous 29 interceptions.

I love Brett Favre. I've been a fan of his since about 1994. But it's over. He got the chance that Elway got, going out on a high note, playing at a high level that made people forget the latter years of his career when he was no longer who he had once been. Coming back, he risks exchanging an Elway-like exit for the Marino-like exit he looked to be heading for, getting whipped in an embarrassment of a game that proved just how far he had fallen.

The Packers' brass should show the strength and leadership to put the franchise ahead of one player, and let Favre go should he try to play another season. If that means Favre joins another team and ends up playing against the Packers in 2008, so be it. San Francisco survived playing against (and losing to) a Joe Montana-lead Chiefs team. I think Green Bay will survive as well.

Favre to Retire

It's finally happened. Brett Favre is hanging it up. I've posted many times over the years on this blog that it was time for Favre to go and for Rodgers to get his shot. Of course that was before last season when Favre again played like the great player he once was. On the one hand I'm a bit surprised he's retiring, with the Packers having come so close last year and looking to again be a contender next year. But on the other hand, what better way to go out than after one last bit of glory, taking his team to overtime in the NFC championship? A Super Bowl championship, a la Elway and Bettis, would certainly be better. But this is a close second.

The big question for the Packers, of course, is what now. Aaron Rodgers has been the heir apparent for a few years now. When he's had his chances to play, he's done well. He's also gotten hurt after each performance. Can he actually play back to back games without getting hurt? He's got a good unit around him, and no one else in the division looks ready to challenge the Packers. I'm not even sure there's another team in the division ready to content for 8-8. (Maybe the Lions, but they need to prove themselves first.) So as long as Rodgers can stay upright, the Packers should be OK. But it'll never be quite the same.

Moss to the Patriots, Revisited

Last year, I blasted New England for bringing in Randy Moss, calling him a "cancer", a "prima donna", and a "walking embarrassment". Well, it's long past time I apologized. Moss ended up being a lot of things I thought he wouldn't be.

I don't know that Moss is essential to Patriot success. Take away his 23 touchdown catches and Brady still had 27 TD throws. As I said then, they have won Super Bowls without him. (And now lost one with him.) Brady had established himself as a future Hall of Famer without Moss to throw to. But he made the whole offense better. Even when Brady wasn't throwing his way, defenses were so concerned about him that they let other guys like Welker go free.

So last year I couldn't believe the Patriots wanted Moss. This year, I'm hoping they keep him for several years. Who knew?

More Thoughts on Super Bowl 42

The theme of the playoffs was "Who wants it more?" The answer in the Super Bowl was clearly the Giants. Two very obvious examples of this had to do with wrestling for the ball. On the Bradshaw fumble, it certainly looked like one of the Patriots had fallen on the ball to recover. But Bradshaw simply out muscled and out fought the Patriots in the scrum to come away with the ball. And on the key play of the game, Tyree comes down with the ball against his helmet and Rodney Harrison furiously fighting to dislodge it. But Tyree holds on. At key moments like that, the Giants just wanted it more.

One of the things that's always impressed me about New England, particularly this year, is its ability to adapt. They spend much of the season blowing away teams and being accused of running up the score. Then when defenses sell out to stopping that at all costs, the Patriots just shift gears and grind it out on the ground and with short passing. If you blitz, they throw screens. They take what you give them. In this game, I don't think they did a good job. The furious Giant pass rush gave the Pats fits all night. But did they start moving Brady around, rolling him out, getting him away from the rush? No. I read an article last week where Strahan I think was talking about the subtle ways Brady makes things hard for pass rushers, one of the best is varying the length of his stride while taking his five step drops. The result is that the rushers never know where Brady will be and so it's hard to zero in on him. But despite rush after rush, Brady kept dropping back and standing there. The Giants knew where he was going to be and zeroed in on him. Where were the adjustments?

The NFL is desperate to generate interest in the NFL Network. But they need to get better people if they want people to watch. I was watching a clip on nfl.com listing the top 10 Super Bowls ever. On the screen was the number of the Super Bowl. But the announcer got every one wrong, to the point where others on the set were ribbing the guy. I understand that they are Roman numerals, but come on. The NFL should at least hire guys who can read the numbers of the NFL's biggest games. Or be smart enough to provide the script for the reader with the numbers spelled out. Pretty embarrassing if you ask me.

Watching celebrities pick football games can numb the brain sometimes. I actually heard Gabriele Union pick the Patriots because she likes Victoria Secrets and Brady's squeezing a Victoria Secrets model. Hmm. I used to try pretty hard to pick games on this blog, and still try every week even if I don't publish my picks anymore. Ms. Union has a different way of doing things.

With Eli having now "arrived", winning his own Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP (faster than Peyton did), are the few commercials made in America that don't feature Peyton now going to fall to Eli? They're already doing those silly DSRL commercials together. Please, spare us. Speaking of ads, back in December I saw a print ad for a watch with Eli's picture and the phrase "unstoppable." At the time, it was quite funny because Eli was not exactly doing well. It was just before the week 17 Patriot game. Gotta admit, it's now pretty appropriate.

A lot of comparisons were made before the game to Super Bowl 36, with the Giants in the role of the Patriots and the Patriots in the role of the Rams. It obviously worked out that way, with the Giants pulling the upset on a clutch end-of-game drive by their previously unheralded quarterback. The Pats should beware since they're now playing the Rams. St. Louis has yet to recover from that loss. A team everyone thought was setup to dominate for years to come, quickly faded and has not done much since, having only won a single wild-card playoff game and having had only one winning season. An MVP quarterback thought to be among the best in the game, and perhaps one of the best ever, lost his starting job the following season and has ended up in Arizona.

30 Seconds

30 seconds. 30 seconds away from a perfect season! Unbelievable. Give all credit to the Giants. Everyone said going into the game that it would be won or lost in the trenches, that the key was the Giant defensive line getting pressure on Brady. And that's how it worked out. Without the pressure, Brady lights it up. They played a great game and the Patriot line had no answers.

The Pats got three wins, each by a field goal. Now they lose by one. One of the key decisions of the game was New England facing 4th and 13 in the third quarter and choosing to go for it rather than attempt a 49 yard field goal. The miss the conversion and come away with nothing. Now, obviously it's a long attempt. But were Vinatieri there, do you think he might have gone for the kick? That ends up being the difference in the game. How long will that decision haunt Belichick's dreams?

Moss says that Patriots just couldn't match the Giants' intensity. All week I kept thinking the Pats were just a bit too cavalier about the whole thing. Brady's response to Plaxico's prediction of the score epitomized it. Just brazenly saying they would score a lot more than 17. (How much do they wish that part of Plaxico's prediction had come true?) After a whole season of never talking about the possibility of perfection, they talked about it a lot the week before the Super Bowl. They just seem to have lost a bit of their focus, got a little bit too caught up in the atmosphere and the moment, and ultimately got a little too full of themselves. They got to 18-0 seeing themselves as a flawed team constantly striving to make fewer mistakes next week. Humble pie was the theme of the season. They got to 18-1 seeing themselves as a team who would have no problem scoring a lot of points and a team going for its place in history. I guess they got the second one, just not the way they expected.

Still, they had the lead with 30 seconds left. What a way to end such a great season. They had so many opportunities to put the game away. Samuel had a game-ending interception in his hands, and dropped it. If they finish off the sack of Manning, it's over. But he escapes somehow and makes a big pass to Tyree to set up the touchdown. Just like last year's AFC title game, all they needed was one play from the defense at the end, but again the Patriots couldn't quite finish off a Manning.

Damn.

16-0 Meaningless?

With the Patriots having gone 16-0 in the regular season, it's become a regular theme in commentary that the record is "meaningless" if the team doesn't win the Super Bowl and complete the perfect season. Meaningless? I understand what people are trying to say with that, namely that this accomplishment will not rank up there with the '72 Dolphins perfect season unless the Pats do what that team did and went on to win the championship. Sure, if the Patriots lose sometime in the post-season, it will be a tremendous disappointment and the 16-0 record won't have quite the luster of Miami's 14-0. But meaningless? No way. In the 88 year history of the league, so far, only three other teams have ever finished a regular season undefeated, and only one other team in the last 60 years has done it (the aforementioned '72 Dolphins). That's one heck of an achievement. Worst case, New England will have had the second greatest season in league history. Not exactly meaningless.

Random Thoughts on NFL 2007 Week 14

Miami's Run at Perfect Imperfection
I was listening to a conversation on the radio this morning about the Dolphins and the future of first year coach Cam Cameron. The gist was that if the Dolphins achieve perfect imperfection (the dreaded 0-16), there's no way Cameron can come back because there's no way anyone on that roster could ever buy into Cameron as a coach. That does make some sense. But I was thinking of another team and another year. The Pittsburgh Steelers in 1969. In Chuck Noll's first year, his team went 1-13 including a 13 game losing streak to match Miami's current streak. Yes, there is a gulf between no wins and one or two. But still, had today's punditry existed back in 1969--with 24 hour sports radio and TV, bloggers, columnists, and so on commenting round the clock--Noll would have been in the same spot Cameron is now. The Rooney family would have been under great pressure to let him go and get someone else. But was Noll a bad coach? Let the Hall of Fame answer that.

I don't know if Cameron's any good as a coach. But I think he inherited a mess of a team, resulting from poor drafts and poor personnel management (both for coaches and players). Isn't it only fair to give the man some chance to make something happen, to bring in some decent players at key position and develop them a bit? Huizinga obviously believed in Cameron less than a year ago, enough to hire him. Letting him go just means someone else has to do the job of rebuilding that team from scratch.

Guarantees
I think the attention given young Anthony Smith last week over his guarantee (how, exactly, were you misquoted Anthony?) of a win over New England was pretty silly. The Patriots are a team on a quest for a perfect season, and were coming off a two week stretch where they looked very much human and vulnerable. If they needed some stupid remark from a second year player to get them going for the game, something is very wrong in Foxboro. New England was going to bring it's A++ game whether young master Smith had mouthed off or not.

That said, the whole affair just proves that guys should really learn to shut up. The only real outcome of Smith's remarks was that he looks pretty stupid right now, and ought to bury his head somewhere. Don't mouth off on something you can't back up. If Ike Taylor or Troy Polamalu (were he playing) had said something like that, at least they could back up their mouth on the field and wouldn't embarrass themselves or their team. Some kid in his second year, well he's just bound to make a fool of himself. And he did. Next time, shut up.

Great Block by Stallworth
Speaking of young man Smith and his performance, one of the great plays in the Steeler-Patriot game was the nearly botched double lateral. What seems to have gone unnoticed in that play was a fantastic block from Donte Stallworth. After Moss dropped the ball, a Steeler defender was closing on him fast, and then Stallworth flew in from the corner of the screen and leveled him, allowing Moss to pick up the ball and complete the play. Without that block, Moss would have been dropped for a loss, or worse. So while all the attention will go to Moss, Brady, and Gaffney, Stallworth should not be overlooked.

Kyle Orton
It's pretty clear that Rex Grossman's time in Chicago is about up. Apart from his inconsistent play on the field, the Bears have to look at his injury history and on that alone his departure would be all but guaranteed. Brian Griese is not their long-term solution at the position, so the Bears need to look for some new, young talent to fill the spot. Why aren't they playing Kyle Orton, the third stringer who was a starter for the Bears for a number of games in 2005? I don't know that he would show much, but shouldn't the team find out what they have on the roster already before looking elsewhere in March (McNabb) or April (the draft)? He did help win some games in 2005. What's the worst that can happen? They lose? The Bears will do a good enough job of that with Griese as well.

Patriots Questions

Long before the 2007 season, I posed several questions about the New England Patriots. I think they can be answered now.

1. Can the defense hold up? Well, that defense is currently ranked #2 in the league, and #6 in the all important statistic of points allowed per game. It's a long season, and they still have to face some very good offenses, but so far that defense is holding up quite well. The only flaw I've seen is they seem a bit vulnerable against the run. Barber got off some good ones in the Dallas game, particularly the play where he broke 6 or 7 tackles, most in the end zone for what would have been a safety, and turned a broken, no shattered, play into a nice gain. They're still ranked #7 against the run, but the opposing teams are usually so far behind so fast that they just can't run too much. Against a team whose defense can slow the Patriot offense and attack the defense with the run, New England could have problems.
   
2. Can the brand new receiving corps gel? Uh, they seem to be doing pretty well. And if this is how good they are while still getting to know each other, how scary will they be when all the kinks are worked out? Wow!
3. How will Randy Moss fit in? So far, outstandingly. He leads the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. In six games, he's blown well past his statistical output in all of 2006. Moss has been on his best behavior, at least publicly a model teammate. I think the only question now is when the Patriots are going to sign him to a long, and big, contract. At this point, I don't think they can let this guy go.
4. Can Maroney carry the load? This hasn't really been answered as Maroney has been injured and has missed 3 games. But in his absence, the running game has clicked along just fine with Sammy Morris. Unfortunately, he's now injured as well. But when both are healthy, Maroney won't have to carry the load as New England will again have an outstanding two-headed running attack.

So all questions answered. The Patriots are scary good. Is there anyone in the league who can stop them, other than themselves? I'm not sure. As I commented on above, a team with a good defense and a power running game will probably give them problems. They do have a couple games against teams like that on the schedule: the Ravens on 12/3 and the Steelers the following week. If they make it that far undefeated, I don't see it getting beyond those two games. But they should still cruise to a Super Bowl triumph.

Brett Favre Touchdown Database

With Brett Favre closing in on Dan Marino's record for career touchdown passes, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has put up a searchable database of all 417 regular season and 34 post-season TD passes. Not too surprisingly, though he's also closing in on the all time interception record (which will he get first?), the Sentinel isn't documenting those.

The Sentinel also has an article where Favre describes his most memorable touchdown and his most memorable interception. As to the interception, even now, almost 14 years later, Favre insists the guy was open! "If you ask Mike [Holmgren], he'd say that was one of the worst; if you ask me that was that close to being an unbelievable play."

NFL's Disabled Players

This ongoing debate over medical benefits for former players, many of whom have pretty horrific stories, seems rather odd because it pits the current players against the former players.

To Solotaroff and many of the ex-players he quotes, the primary villains in this story are the Players Association and its executive director, Gene Upshaw, who makes $6.7 million a year, far more than any other sports union leader.

"In a game expected to take in $7 billion this year and that exceeds all others in causing bodily harm, fewer than 3 percent of the men who played in the league succeed in getting disability benefits," Solotaroff writes. "Worse, the players union turns away ailing vets despite a pension fund with $1 billion in assets."

Don't these current players realize they will be among the former players in the not-too-distant future? With an average career lasting only 3 1/2 years, many will join those ranks far sooner than they may think.

The current players, and their union, have a vested interest in ensuring that former players like Brian DeMarco and Dave Pear get the care and assistance they require.

DeMarco's back is held together by a titanium rod screwed into his hips. He has rebuilt knees and a painful shoulder. He's been homeless several times and spent several months living in a storage facility.

He's also only 35 and was in the league as recently as 1999. He's thought about killing himself just so his wife and kids could have his death benefit.

Then there's Dave Pear, a nose tackle who was the first Pro Bowler for Tampa Bay and who played for Oakland in the 1981 Super Bowl. He's had four disks fused, has four screws in his back that need to be replaced and needs both hips replaced. He takes about 25 pills a day and draws disability through Social Security.

Yet it's their own union that is viewed as the primary opponent of them getting such care.

Upshaw says he's not legally allowed to represent retired players. Then he should step up to the plate and represent the active players to get it done. If he doesn't, he's failing not only his own peers--he is, after all, a former player himself--but the men in the union that pays him almost $7 million per year to represent their interests.

Michael Vick

What are the Falcons to do now that their star quarterback has been indicted for dog fighting? He hasn't been tried and not been convicted, so from that point of view Vick deserves the benefit of the doubt that is given to all Americans: innocent until proven guilty. But if Atlanta allows him to take the field this season, it will be a circus. Vick will be personally distracted and will likely miss practice time during the season as he shuttles to Virginia for hearings and possibly the trial. Press conferences will be all about Vick's legal situation. The team as a whole will be distracted by the media circus and all the Vick questions. And recall that they are a team with a new coach and learning a new system. Road trips will be harder than usual with crowds full of people in dog costumes, taunting Vick in all manner of ways. And it will be a public relations nightmare for the team, more than it already is. It seems obvious putting Vick on the field for the Falcons is just not a good idea at this point.

So, what should they do? Suspension? No. Not only would that probably not work (the union would come down in the team and Vick would probably win), I don't think it's justified. This isn't Pacman Jones or Tank Johnson. Michael Vick has kept himself out of trouble throughout his career, until now, and so deserves some leniency--for now--from both the team and league.

Cut him? That's a tough one. Looking purely at his performance on the field, this is a valid question. He's one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league, Peyton Manning-like money, but has yet to break 3000 yards passing in a season, and last year was the first time he threw 20 touchdowns. He has not played to the level of his contract and is not worth the money they're paying him. Given that it's unlikely Vick will take a big pay cut in a contract restructuring, cutting their losses might be a good idea for the team. The negative PR angle arising from his arrest just adds to the benefits of doing so.

On the other hand, cutting Vick would constitute a big cap hit this year and next ($6 million this year, $15 million next year). On top of that, for better or worse, Vick is the face of the franchise, a star on a team very much devoid of big names. So cutting him just may not be practical.

What's left? They need to do something that will allow him to get his pay, so the union won't come down on the team, but keeps him off the field and away from the team facilities. What is clear is that the Falcons need to move forward in training camp in the season with someone else at quarterback.

NFL 2007 Ridiculously Early Predictions

It's that time of year again, time to jump out there and make my predictions for the upcoming season. This is the fourth installment of the series. As with any prediction, my success has been pretty hit and miss. As usual, I will walk through my expectations for each division in the league, and then name four teams from each conference I think likely to make the big game.

As always, I must disclose I am a personal fan of the Steelers, Patriots, and Packers. I do my best to not let that influence my analysis, but it's good to know. And, as I wrote last year, it also helps in understanding some terminology I might use. For example, to describe anything as "Viking-like", especially a defense, is a derogatory statement.

Here we go....

AFC East
New England has dominated this division for pretty much the whole decade, winning the division title each year except 2002. Last season they made it all the way to the AFC title game, which they led 21-3 at the half and appeared all set for their fourth Super Bowl appearance (and win) in six seasons. Then the defense collapsed in the second half and the Colts managed to pull out the game, and the Lombardi. The Patriots have made the biggest splash in the off-season this year, with high profile additions like Adalius Thomas and Randy Moss, making them the odds-on preseason favorite to win the title this year.

If everything falls together the way New England's brass obviously hopes it will, this should be a very good team. Tom Brady has never had a receiving corps this talented. If he was able to win three Super Bowls and have multiple seasons with over 4000 yards passing with the guys he had then, he should really turn it on this year. But there are several things that observers seem to be overlooking or forgetting in the rush to anoint the Pats.

1. The biggest improvement with the team has been at receiver. Last year's receiving corps was pretty nondescript and made up of a bunch of guys who had never played in New England before. And they made it to within a few minutes of a Super Bowl appearance with that corps. What cost them the title last year was a defense that is getting older by the day at linebacker and secondary. Yes, they picked up linebacker Thomas and drafted corner Meriweather. But the starting group of four linebackers will still be pretty old. And with Samuel threatening to follow in Branch's footsteps with a holdout, they haven't really upgraded there either. So while they've presumably improved the offense, the main problem they had last year in the playoffs was not adequately addressed. Now, it's only fair to point out that the defense I've just maligned was 2nd in the league last year in points allowed, so they clearly could still play. But it's still a bit on the optimistic side that they can continue doing so.
2. Speaking of the receiving corps, a lot was made last year that the receivers were all new except Troy Brown. Guess what. That's true again this year. One has to expect the top three to be Moss, Stallworth, and Weckler, none of whom played for New England last year. With Brown having been cut again, and not re-signed as of this writing, last year's newbies are now the seasoned veterans, being in their second year.
3. Randy Moss. What kind of player is he going to be? Will he be the superstar of a few years ago? Will he play hard every down, unlike he famously did in Minnesota? Will he be a distraction?
   
4. With Corey Dillon gone, Maroney becomes the top running back for the team. He had a good season last year, but that was a year when he split carries with Dillon, and in fact was not even the workhorse of the backfield. Now, Maroney has to become an every down back and go from 500 yards rushing last year to somewhere in he 1200 yards this year. It's an unknown that he can do that, and with Dillon gone there's no one to fall back on.

These are just questions. Patriot brass hopes and assumes the defense will play as well as it did last year, that the new receivers will be assimilated as well as last year's were, that Moss will be productive and buy into the system without being a distraction, and that Maroney can step up and be a good back. If all that happens, New England is clearly the team to beat in the division, and in fact the league. With the offense these changes will hopefully allow, they could be a top 10 team in both offense and defense.

Even if not all of those things come to pass, New England is still the class of the division and I don't see anybody seriously challenging them there. The Jets continue to be a solid #2 team and wildcard contender. The Bills and the Dolphins continue to work out their respective messes at quarterback.

AFC North
As I wrote last year, this should be an entertaining division. The Bengals disappointed last season with streaky play resulting in winning streaks followed by long losing streaks. Such would be expected from a young team just starting to hit its stride. I expect a more mature Bengal team this year to be the team to beat in the division. That is, if they can keep enough players out of jail.

The Steelers came off their surprising Super Bowl win with a disappointing season as well, limping along to 8-8. They still have some good talent and haven't had too many key losses. But the one key loss they did have was coach Cowher. Mike Tomlin is a total unknown, and we have to expect some rough spots as the team transitions to a new man, particularly with a roster still geared to Cowher's preferences rather than Tomlin's. While I think they will have a winning season, I cannot see them contending for the division title. Of course, being a wild-card didn't hurt them too much in 2005.

I don't really like Baltimore. I know they won the division last year and secured the second seed in the AFC playoffs, but the division ended up being pretty weak. Like New England, they face the continual aging of key players like Ray Lewis and Steve McNair. Against a rejuvenated Bengal team, I don't see them doing much.

Cleveland, well can we say. They continue to try to find a roster of guys who can produce. Contend? I don't think so.

AFC West
This has been a tough division to pick in the recent past, but no more. San Diego owned the division last year and will continue to do so. They are perhaps the most talented team in the league. But, like Pittsburgh, they face an overhaul of the coaching staff and that leads one to expect some rough spots. And Norv Turner hasn't exactly inspired confidence anywhere he's gone as a head coach. But with all that talent, and a chip on their shoulders at not even winning a playoff game when they were favored with the Super Bowl, they should be very successful this year.

Denver is the only team that could conceivably challenge the Chargers. But they've had a tumultuous off-season with multiple players dying. On top of that, they don't have the talent San Diego has, particularly at key positions like running back and quarterback.

Kansas City joins Oakland in the ranks of total rebuilding, and neither will be much of a force.

AFC South
The Colts are obviously the team with the big targets on their backs this year. After three straight seasons of playing second fiddle and losing to the eventual champions New England (2003, 2004) and Pittsburgh (2005), they managed to bring home the trophy last year. Because of that history, though, they remind of me the 2002 Bucs and the 2005 Steelers: teams that finally managed to win the Super Bowl after several seasons of knocking on the door and being disappointed. Of course, neither of those teams followed up their big seasons with anything special, Tampa with a losing year in 2003 and Pittsburgh at 8-8 in 2006.

I think the reason is simple. After so many seasons of struggling to get over the hump, as it were, having succeeded the team lost its edge and got complacent. Watching Pittsburgh last year, there just wasn't the fire, the edge that they had had in previous years.

Indy will face the same struggle, a struggle that is exacerbated by many key personnel losses since the big game. We're already seeing players skipping workouts and Manning having to work the phones to try to get everyone working again. The team was already in decline relative to their great years prior to 2006. Now player losses combined with complacency will take the team down a peg or two.

That said they will still win the division. Like the East, this division is a one horse show. They just won't be the dominant, elite AFC team they've been.

The Jags have been the only team who could contend the last couple of years, but like the Jets they are a solid #2 team and wild-card contender. The offense just isn't good enough. Now, there is talk they might go after Daunte Culpepper, and if he can finally recover from his injuries and if he can regain his old form, he would have to be the starting quarterback and they would suddenly become something of a dangerous team. But those are big if's, and he's still a Dolphin anyway.

The Titans ended the season strong, winning six of the last seven games to get to 8-8, including wins over both the Colts and the Jaguars. I'm sure they will be a dark horse candidate on many lists to surprise, and certainly they have to be considered to have the potential. But they are a young team. Vince Young is obviously young, going into just his second year and first as the starter. He had a strong season last year and was a big part of their run at the end of the year. But he still has a ways to go. They are young at running back. They are experienced at wide receiver, but not with great talent. The defense isn't so hot. No one can look past them and they certainly have a strong potential upside. But I still can't quite see them pushing past the Colts for the division.

The Texans, well they continue to try.

NFC East
This is a fun division, by NFC standards. The division typically sees multiple teams battling it out for the title. Last year, the Eagles were the surprise of the NFC, taking the division title from a Cowboy team that looked to have it in the bag, and with their star starting quarterback on the sidelines. Are they back to being the class of the division? It's hard to tell. Clearly the team has questions about McNabb, having had an injury problem the last several years. This is a team that needs a solid backup, but they made little effort to re-sign Garcia, and the rest of the depth chart does not inspire confidence.

We can eliminate Washington and New York, I think. Neither team is all that strong. The 'Skins have lots of questions about their surprisingly anemic offense, and a new, QB to boot. The Giants face a season with their coach under the gun to deliver, continuing questions about Eli Manning, and the loss of Tiki Barber who the team did not really replace. It's hard to see either team making much of a run.

So, what about Dallas? They looked good much of last year, and had Romo as the feel-good story of the year. But he faded down the stretch and the Cowboys let a seemingly secure division title get away. So they certainly have something to prove. And they have to do so with a new coaching staff, which as I've already seems guaranteed to lead to problems in the short run.

Overall, I have to go with Dallas again. They should be better on defense than Philly, and their receivers are significantly better. Certainly McNabb is a far superior quarterback than Romo, so far, but you cannot rely on him being able to go 16 games, and like I said their depth chart is not great at that position.

NFC North
The Bears are obviously the favorites here. Rex Grossman took a lot of hits from writers last season, including this one. But what must be remembered about Grossman is this: it was essentially his first season as a starter. His career to that point was so marred by injury that just playing 5 straight games was a major achievement. He hadn't played a full season in several years, so one had to question his ability to play at a consistent level for a full season, then the post-season. But before he fell apart, he had a fantastic first month. Chicago, a team known for defense, had one of the top offenses that first month. So, clearly Grossman can play. The question is, can he play at that level for 16 games? I'm not sure. But given the strength of their defense and the lack of any serious competition, they seem a pretty solid bet to win the division.

I took the Lions as a potential dark horse last year, and that didn't exactly pan out. But I was right in predicting that Kitna would be a good quarterback in Martz's system and that the offense would be productive. I think they will be even better this year, even though they shocked the world and went a totally new direction in the draft: taking a wide receiver with an early first round pick. OK, no more sarcasm. With more familiarity with that offense, Kitna should have an even better season and the Lions will be exciting. But the defense is still abysmal, and it's hard to see them topping Chicago. But if the Bears should falter, look for the Lions to sneak in and take the title.

The Vikings are a shambles on offense. They will presumably be more productive than the 2006 Raiders, but I don't know that that's saying a whole heck of a lot.

The Packers, I don't know. Too many holes. Another 8-8 would be a decent result.

NFC West
I hate this division. It stinks! I've picked the Cardinals two years in a row, thinking that all the offensive talent would translate into points and therefore wins. But with the Arizona brass ignoring offensive line for years, that didn't happen. The Cards seem like they've finally addressed that hole this year, hiring Russ Grimm to be the line coach. Is that enough to make me pick them again? No way. I officially give up on them. (The last time I gave up on an NFC West team, they won't to the Super Bowl.)

The Rams aren't really going anywhere for a while except down.

The division seems to come down to Seattle and San Francisco. I like where the 49ers are going, at least on offense. Defense still leaves something to be desired. Smith is developing nicely at quarterback, Frank Gore had a very good season last year, and they have some talent are receiver and tight end. I really think they could move up the ranks this year and become a contender again, particularly if they can tighten up that defense a bit, a defense that was worst in the NFL last year in points allowed.

The Seahawks won the division again last year. Even in a weak division they only mustered a 9-7 record, but it was enough. Former MVP Alexander had a pretty bland season last year, slowed by injury to his foot, an injury which might not be fully healed. Hasslebeck didn't have a great season either, throwing a lot of interceptions and also missing time due to injury. They've been the top team in the division for a while, but the primary reason is that they have been the only team be consistently not so bad. In a weak division they've been the best. But with the 49ers, who swept the Seahawks last season improving and seemingly the rising force in the division, I have to go with them over the Seahawks.

NFC South
This is another weak division. (The NFC prefix is a dead give-away.) The Saints were the surprise team of 2006, rising from the bottom of the league to the NFC title game. The gamble with Drew Brees paid off big time as he emerged as a top quarterback and led a very good offense. Of course, it helps that Colston was another surprise for the team at receiver, and that the team managed to balance Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Seldom have so many new additions all contributed so convincingly.

The rest of the division is nothing special. There don't seem to be any truly bad teams, assuming they can stay healthy. But nobody all that good either.

In Atlanta, the buzz surrounding Michael Vick seems to have finally died down. He's finally be judged purely as a quarterback, and found lacking. And need I mention is off field problems this offseason? In an attempt to finally address their glaring hole at wide receiver, the Falcons picked up former rival Joe Horn from the Saints. He's been a good player, but he's getting older, and missed six games last season due to injury. Horn might be able to produce and give the Falcons a legitimate passing threat, but at this point that has to be considered hopeful speculation. Without that, the Falcons are again a pure running team. If Vick's legal problems take him off the field, they are really in trouble because they got rid of their capable backup Schaub. And with Vick running so much, injury is a constant worry for the team. I can't even see them building on the 7-9 record they posted last year.

The Panthers? I just think it's not there for them anymore. The offense isn't all that productive anymore. Delhomme seems to have peaked a couple of years ago. It's not that he's bad, he's just not great and doesn't appear to be getting closer to being so. The defense is still good, though there are questions about Kris Jenkins. Carolina can win games and even challenge New Orleans, but I just don't seem them as much more than wild-card contenders at this point.

The Bucs were a disappointment last year. The injury to Simms obviously didn't help, particularly as it exposed the lack of depth at the position they had after letting former starter Brian Griese go. But even before that they were not really asserting themselves as many had expected. The offense disappointed, with 2005's young stars all tanking in 2006. The defense, for so long the standard bearer of the team, ended up ranked in the bottom half of the league for the first time in who knows how long. That defense relies on too many aging stars. With Jeff Garcia at quarterback, they ought to have much better play on offense, obviously. But can guys like Clayton and Williams get back on track? One thinks so with Garcia there. Like Carolina, the Bucs are not a bad team and can challenge, but relying on a 37 year old QB new to the team does not inspire confidence, even if he did play well last year. Wildcard? Maybe. Division? No.

Super Bowl
It's far too soon to actually pick a Super Bowl matchup, so as always I will pick the four top teams in each conference, one of whom is most likely to make the big game.

AFC: New England, San Diego, Cincinnati, Tennessee
The first three are obvious, but the Titans, a team I didn't even pick to win the division? Well, I really can't see the Colts being true contenders this year. I do think they'll win the division, but not do much in the playoffs. The Titans, while I'm not picking them to win the division, have a lot of potential. If they can translate that end-of-season momentum into something this season, they could well come out of nowhere. If that happens, they will be a stronger contender than the Colts.

Everyone will pick the Patriots for reasons already stated. I won't be any different. At this point one has to give the New England brain trust the credit the deserve and assume they know what they are doing in acquiring people. Besides, for the first time in a few years, they haven't had any significant departures, either players or coaches. So they have to be the team in the driver's seat. They have the advantage of playing both the Chargers and the Bengals during the regular season, and so have a good degree of control over their own playoff seeding destiny. Of course, that also means they have a pretty tough first month of the season.

I really like San Diego, but with so much turnover on the coaching staff (headlined by head coach and both coordinators), and the fact that the guys brought in to replace the outgoing coaches are not necessarily an improvement, I have to expect something of a falloff from last season. But still, they have to be considered the primary challenger to New England.

I really like the Bengal offense. One of the best. But the defense being what it is, they are like the Colts of recent years. They will contend, be a dangerous team, and if things fall right might even with the big one. But they would need help to get there. But still, with that offense, there are few teams in the regular season who will beat them.

NFC: Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, Detroit
The Bears and Saints are obvious, having met in last year's conference title game. Assuming Grossman can take a few steps forward as a quarterback this year and play the whole season solidly, they have to be considered the class of the NFC. As I wrote above, they have the potential to be a top 10 team in both offense and defense. And with their built-in home field advantage, they are tough to beat in January. Ask the Saints.

The Saints are an outstanding team, too. With all the attention on offense last year, what's often overlooked is their defense was ranked #11. So they too have the potential to a double top 10 team. They are now experienced, well coached, and just plain good. The biggest problem is that they play in a dome in one of the warmest and most humid locations in the league, which puts them at great disadvantage should they have to travel in the playoffs. As was shown last year.

I'm not really sure about Dallas, but I need four teams so somebody has to be there. They are a good team, and could have won a playoff game last year. They are better than just about anyone else in the NFC, so if disaster should strike the Saints or the Bears, or both, the Cowboys certainly look like a team that could step into the breach.

Now, the Lions. As I said, I need four teams for this section. I've already reached with the third team, so this is a real stretch (though not as much as picking Tennessee for the AFC). But I do like the potential of the Lion offense. If Chicago should falter, that offense should bring them the division title. And with the lack of strong defenses in the NFC, they would be certainly viable candidates to challenge for the conference title.

Moss to the Patriots

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

What kind of move is this? The Patriots, whose personnel department is considered one of the best in the league, trades a fourth round pick to Oakland to get Randy Moss. Why would New England want to bring that cancer into the locker room? I've been hearing for months about Moss going to Green Bay, but it never occurred to me that he would go to the Pats. For a team that values team-first players, willingly taking on a me-first guy like Moss is pretty surprising, especially when they've already had a tremendous off-season and are already favorites to win the AFC.

Now, I get the reasoning. A fourth round pick for a man who has the potential to be one of the top receivers in the NFL is a pretty good deal. But you have to also consider his salary, which will make Moss one of the highest paid receivers in the league, and Pioli and company don't usually spend that kind of money for players who haven't really earned it. (If they did, Deion Branch would still be a Patriot and, who knows, they might have that fourth ring.) While Moss was a great receiver a few years ago with the Vikings, he hasn't made much of a splash in Oakland (OK, it's Oakland) and he seems to have given up really even trying.

But the biggest problem is the most obvious. Moss is a walking embarrassment to any team he's on. The Vikings were not exactly overflowing with talent at the WR position, but even they eventually tired of his shenanigans. From pushing police officers with his car to the faux moon of the Lambeau crowd to bragging about taking plays off whenever he felt like it, and on and on. He's a prima donna with tremendous raw talent who let that talent go to his head and made him think he could do whatever he wanted.

With New England, he's for the first time on a team and surrounded by players not likely to be overly awed by his ability, not likely to be over-dependent on his contributions. These guys have won Super Bowls without him. Rather than being the star of the show, he's in the position of learning to say, "Yes sir, Mr. Brady." Maybe that will tame him, in which case trading a fourth round pick really was a steal. Maybe those two seasons in Oakland will have humbled Moss and he will go to the Patriots with a strong desire to re-prove himself, in which case the Patriots made out like bandits. But let's just say we should all be skeptical.

One thing I have to comment on. Jason Cole compares Moss to Corey Dillon when he first came to the Patriots a few years ago. That's really unfair, to Dillon. Certainly, Dillon had a bad reputation coming out of Cincinnati. But what was the cause? He gave 7 strong seasons to a team that was the laughing stock of the league. After those years, he was frustrated and desperately wanted out. Can you blame him? Did he have the image of a guy blowing off the team, taking plays off, walking off the field before a game was over? No. He worked his tail off for the Bengals. He just made it known he didn't want to be there, and one has to be sympathetic. The issues surrounding Corey Dillon were very much exaggerated, much to New England's ultimate benefit. The issues surrounding Moss are very much not exaggerated.

Lions And Receivers

Yo Matt Millen! There are positions on the field other than wide receiver! For the fourth time in five years, the Lions spent their early first round draft pick on a wide receiver, this year Calvin Johnson. Come on. Has any team invested as much in one position as the Lions have? And what have they gotten for it? Nothing. To understand why Millen has been such a failure as a general manager, look no further than the WR position. He sure hasn't.

Bledsoe Retires

Quarterback Drew Bledsoe has announced his retirement after 14 seasons. He goes out with some very impressive statistics, but having never really established himself solidly as an elite quarterback. He had the misfortune of playing much of his career on Patriot teams that just were not all that good. For a couple of years, they had Curtis Martin as their running back, and won some divisional titles and went to a Super Bowl. Outside of that, the team never really came together with Bledsoe at the helm. I think it says something about his ability that he was able to put together those statistics without much around him.

He has been so completely overshadowed by his successor in New England that it's easy to forget that just before the 2001 season, New England signed Drew to a contract that would have made him a Patriot for life. He was the star of a franchise sorely lacking. At the time, no one could have imagined Bledsoe not leading the team. Of course, just 2 games into that season, Bledsoe got hurt and the Patriots went off into the stratosphere with Tom Brady. It's also easy to forget that Bledsoe actually won that 2001 AFC title game, with Brady hurt much of the game (so they've both won 2 title games) and that there was a serious quarterback controversy in the week leading up to Super Bowl 36, with some advocating the now unimaginable view that Brady should be benched and Drew should start the game.

Basically, Drew's career was always stuck in the shadow of others. In his heyday, he was in the shadow of greats like Favre, a declining Marino, Aikman, Young, Elway, etc. In his latter days, he was in the shadow of Brady. Because of this, and because his teams were rarely all that good, I don't think he's ever really gotten the respect that he should have. He won't make the Hall of Fame, but there is reason to think he perhaps should.

Lance Briggs, Playing for $7 Million

Chicago Bears linebacker Lance Briggs is threatening to sit out next season because the Bears have slapped the franchise tag on him, meaning he will get what is effectively a one year deal for over $7 million rather than becoming a free agent. Needless to say, a lot of fans are put off by this attitude. One of Peter King's readers writes

Lance Briggs needs to shut up and play. He is going to be paid over $7 million for one year of playing football. In my company, people who are paid over $100,000 per year are considered 'highly compensated individuals.' If I were a 'highly compensated individual' for 40 years, I would bring down $4 million. Lance is going to almost double that in one year and he is miffed. Cry me a river of crocodile tears. I know other guys are getting stupid money but I'll tell you, it is getting to be fed-up time with these guys. They need a little perspective.

I understand the vitriol against Briggs, but I actually do understand his point of view and it's something the fans are missing. Briggs has been playing at a high level for several years, with a contract that is not commensurate with his ability and value to the team. In the NFL, even a top-tier player only gets a couple of shots at the big payday, the kind of money that can set him and his family up for life. For Briggs, he has one of those shots right now. While $7 million is certainly a lot of money, it won't last a lifetime.

From the player's point of view, he could take the field on opening day and suffer a season-ending knee injury. Then what? He'll certainly become a free agent next year, and get nowhere near the money he can get right now. He may never have another shot at the big signing bonus, so the Bears are putting his long-term financial position at risk for the sake of keeping him for a year. I can certainly appreciate Briggs' point of view and his anger at the organization.

NFL 2006 Super Bowl Thoughts

Another season in the books. Another season ending in a fairly boring Super Bowl. We haven't had a good one since 38, which ironically was billed as a snooze-fest in the making before becoming the most exciting game of at least the last 10 years. The Bears were just not worthy opponents. The Colts didn't play spectacular football, but they didn't need to against such a lousy team.

Last year's Super Bowl champion was not necessarily even the best team in its own division (Bengals arguably were), nor were they the best edition the franchise had fielded in recent years. This year's champion isn't the best team the Colts have had in the last five years. Yet, where those better Colt teams failed, this inferior version won it all. We seem to be heading into another lull with no clearly dominant teams, much like we had after the Broncos faded and before the Patriots became dominant in 2003.

Manning won the MVP, but that just shows the meaningless-ness of the award. It should have gone to Rhodes. In the fourth quarter with the game still close, at least on the scoreboard, and the Bears with still a theoretical chance of winning, Rhodes just bludgeoned Chicago into submission with run after run right down the gut. Manning only threw something like 2 passes in the fourth quarter.

Speaking of Manning, the big story line will be how this win validates his career. Come on. If Manning never won a Super Bowl, he would still be listed among the great quarterbacks of all time. The validation that comes out of this game is for Tony Dungy. This is a coach who had to wait a long time to get a head coaching job, then saw his tremendous success in Tampa Bay clouded by the early playoff exits that eventually got him fired. To add insult to injury, his replacement in Tampa took what was essentially Dungy's roster and won the Super Bowl with it in his first season, seemingly confirming that Dungy was what stood in the Bucs' way. Winning it himself this year validates his career.

The Colts should be very glad they won it this year, because their window may have just closed. Don Banks has a pretty good assessment of the upcoming off-season and all the changes it could well bring to Indy. It isn't pretty. They must start to pay the price for all the money they've invested in their marquee offensive players, with hits coming in the secondary, linebackers, and defensive line.

The sight of Don Shula running the gauntlet of Colts players with the Lombardi trophy and a goofy grin on his face was kind of funny. I did notice that he was introduced as the coach of the Dolphins; not mentioned was his career as coach of the Colts, which included one Super Bowl trip and laying the foundation for the only other Colt Super Bowl win in Super Bowl 5. In fact, he was in much the same boat as Dungy, watching his replacement with the Colts take his roster to the title in his first season. It was Miami, I know, but still it seemed a bit strange to not acknowledge his historic connection to the franchise that had just won the Super Bowl.

NFL 2006 Super Bowl Prediction

So far my predictions for the post-season have been about as accurate as my predictions during the season. But you have play things to the buzzer, right? So who will win the Super Bowl?

Short answer: Colts.

Long answer: the Colts.

The Bear offensive problems are well documented and oft discussed. They are capable of putting up a lot of points. It is sometimes forgotten that for the first month or so of the season, when Grossman was Good Rex every game, the Bears were the highest scoring team in the league. But that was September. Grossman hasn't had a game when he's been Good Rex for 60 minutes since then. So when the passing game is on, they can keep up with the best offensive teams, including Indy. But the rest of the time, it falls to the defense.

And the Bear defense, while very good, is living somewhat on reputation. They showed a clear decline toward the end of the season and are capable of giving up a lot of points. They've lost a couple of key players to injury, and that has left exploitable gaps in the defense. They are particularly vulnerable in the secondary, and the Colts have some some ability at deep passing.

For the Colts, the offense may not be as splashy or out of this world as it was in recent years, but it's still quite good. They can take on any defense the league can dish up, and deal with it. Ask New England, who some will argue is a better defense than Chicago's.

Finally, let's face it, the NFC stinks. It's so bad a conference, the second best team was 10-6. One or both of the AFC wild card teams would have had an excellent chance of winning the NFC. The Bears may have been 13-3, but in the four games against the AFC they were 2-2, and only one of those wins (against the Bills) was a game that reinforced the notion that the Bears can hang with the AFC.

The game won't be a blowout. This isn't San Diego-San Francisco. The Bear defense will have success against Manning and the Colt offense and will keep Chicago in the game. But that just puts the pressure on Grossman to step up and win it, and he won't. I'm thinking it will be a more like a Patriot win, 4 points or so. Let's call it 21-17.